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Leaked security services memo said Britain was safe + what the leaked JTAC memo meanshttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,22989-1700121,00.html
A police officer tries to keep the public away from Edgware Road station after the bomb (Daniel Deme/EPA)
London bombs
July 19, 2005
Leaked security services memo said Britain was safe
Britain's security status was downgraded less than a month before the London bombings because the security services were confident that there was no-one in Britain capable of carrying out a terror attack, it emerged today.
The memo, which will be highly embarrassing to the Government, said that there was no imminent threat of attack. "At present there is not a group with both the current intent and the capability to attack the UK," it said, according to a leaked copy obtained by The New York Times.
In a further embarrassment, the assessment also clearly states that the Iraq war had made Britain more vulnerable to terrorists - something the Government angrily denies.
The pronouncement from the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC), which comprises 100 of the most senior MI5, military and Scotland Yard counter-terror specialists, prompted the Government to lower its threat assessment one level, from "severe general" to "substantial".
"Substantial" is the fourth most serious threat level on a scale of one to seven, rating the likelihood of Islamic terrorism only one level higher than the "moderate" threat from the IRA. This compares with "critical," the highest level of alert, which means that an attack is expected within two weeks, down to "negligible," the seventh and lowest level.
The JTAC report was presented to the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) last month, and circulated to Scotland Yard, hospitals, Government departments, foreign Governments and multinational corporations.
The bald fact that the threat level had been reduced was widely reported after the bombings, and Charles Clarke, the Home Secretary, has already been forced to acknowledge that the decision was wrong.
But details of the memo had not been seen until it was leaked to The New York Times, which published excerpts today - the first time that the background to the decision has been disclosed. The leak is expected to add to mounting pressure for an inquiry into Britain's handling of security intelligence. Today, Government officials attempted to minimise the fallout by claiming that the decision had no practical impact on counter-terrorism measures.
The report concludes that there was no sign of an imminent attack, although it does say that a general threat existed from both the international al-Qaeda network and from homegrown radicals acting independently.
The threat from al Qaeda's "leadership-directed plots has not gone away," it said. Despite that threat and the situation in Iraq, it added, "many of our current concerns focus on the wide range and large number of extremist networks and individuals in the UK and individuals and groups that are inspired by but only loosely affiliated to AQ (al-Qaeda) or are entirely autonomous.
"Some of these have the potential to plan UK attacks, and it is also possible that lone extremists or small groups could attempt lower-level attacks."
JTAC comprises around 100 intelligence officers dedicated to analysing the activities and threat from al-Qaeda related terrorists in Britain. It passes its findings onto the JIC, which advises the Government on its security strategy. The report continues: "Events in Iraq are continuing to act as motivation and a focus of a range of terrorist related activity in the UK."
Yesterday John Reid, the Defence Secretary, and Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, both rejected a report from Chatham House, the respected independent research group, which said that the Iraq war had made Britain more vulnerable.
Tony Blair has argued that the terrorists are driven solely by their "evil ideology", rather than by political concerns. At a press conference in Downing Street today after a meeting with Muslim leaders, the Prime Minister said that terrorists would use any excuse for violence - and foreign policy should not be tailored around those excuses.
"Of course these terrorists will use Iraq as an excuse. They will use Afghanistan. September 11, of course, happened before both those things and then the excuse was American policy on Israel," he said. "They will always have their reasons for acting but we have got to be careful of almost giving in to the perverted and twisted logic with which they argue."
"It is so glaring, to so many intelligent, educated young Muslims, that we have fallen in behind a grossly mistaken American foreign policy and are not even protesting against it. Even if we can’t change it, protests from people in authority will cool the water of tolerance in some sections of the community."
Meanwhile an Egyptian newspaper reported today that Scotland Yard had accepted Cairo's assurances that an Egyptian biochemist whose flat is thought to have been used by the London bombers had no connection with the atttacks.
Magdy el-Nashar, 33, is thought to have lent his flat in Leeds to one of the four bombers when he returned to Egypt a week before the July 7 bombings.
He was arrested at his parents' home in Cairo last week after West Yorkshire police found traces of explosives at the flat. Detectives flew from London to join the interrogation.
"There is complete security cooperation with the British side, which is convinced from the questioning carried out by Egypt that el-Nashar had no role in these explosions," al-Ahram newspaper quoted a senior security source as saying. But it said that the chemist would remain in detention until his questioning was complete.
Scotland Yard declined to comment on the report.
Mr el-Nashar told his questioners in Cairo that he returned to Egypt for a six-week holiday and had intended to return to Leeds, where he earned his doctorate earlier this year in enzyme biochemistry.
In Pakistan, police said today that they were holding seven Islamic militants with possible links to the London bombers.
Authorities also said they had detained another 52 people suspected of links to militants as part of a nationwide sweep.
Security officials believe one of the bombers spent time at a seminary in Lahore, an eastern city where many militant groups have clandestine operations.
The Lahore police chief, Tariq Saleem, said that some people had been taken into custody in the case. "We are holding a few militants who are suspected of having links to the London suicide bombers," he said.
Other police officials said that the seven detained men were from two outlawed militant groups, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Jaish-e-Mohammed. Both are linked to al-Qaeda, and some of their supporters have been arrested for trying to assassinate President Pervez Musharraf.
Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, was today announcing an additional £20 million to step up the fight against terrorism and support victims of the July 7 bomb attacks in London.
He was expected to say that the Treasury will provide up to £10 million for the Criminal Injuries Compensation Scheme to cover loss of earnings and other unforeseen costs for victims and their families, and a further £10 million to help the Metropolitan Police in its anti-terrorist operations.
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http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,22989-1700176,00.html
London bombs
July 19, 2005
Q&A: what the leaked JTAC memo means
Michael Evans (left), Times Defence Editor, says the leaked memo raises serious questions about the UK's intelligence service
What is the group that drew up this memo?
The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre was set up in May 2003, at first mainly to foster closer co-operation between MI5 and the police. It was considered necessary to have some sort of central analysis centre in the wake of the September 11 attacks.
Now JTAC has broadened out and includes representatives from 11 Government departments including Transport, the Home Office, the Foreign Office and so on.
All of its officers are dedicated to gleaning information on international terrorism. They work around the clock, seven days a week. This is now the key analysis centre for all intelligence, covert and overt, foreign and domestic, that arrives in the UK. They compile their reports and that information is passed on to ministers.
Would lowering the threat status have had any practical effect in making us less safe?
If you lower the security level, it means that the intelligence services believe that there is no-one around posing a particular threat. There had been no evidence of any al-Qaeda chatter to indicate that there was a focus on Britain in any specific or even any general way.
Government officials are probably correct in saying that going down from "severe general" to "substantial" would not have any noticeable effect in terms of the number of police on the streets, but I think they are perhaps being a little disingenuous.
After all, if lowering the status makes no difference, why bother lowering it?
It's more likely to be a matter of the mindset of the intelligence officers: if you are poring over material and you believe that the general threat is not that great, maybe that would affect how seriously you treat the intelligence that you come across.
This looks embarrassing, but who is to blame?
If the leak is accurate it is highly embarrassing. This decision was made a month before the attacks took place and the most senior intelligence officers in Britain did not have any evidence.
Nevertheless, the fact is that they didn't know there was a terror attack imminent. There was nothing at all in the intelligence which showed there was a group of people from Leeds plotting to mount two bomb attacks in London.
The failure was not so much that they downgraded the response, but that they didn't have any intelligence at all. Whether that means that they are not doing their job properly is another matter.
Intelligence is not something which is going to land on your plate. It's quite clearly possible for a sophisticated terrorist group to plan something like this without letting on. In a democratic society you have to rely on information - electronic and human intelligence - before you can take any decisions.
So yes, it is a failure, but unless it can be proved that Agent A actually saw this intelligence and failed to act upon it, it's very difficult to say that anyone is to blame.
It's always easier to piece these things together in retrospect. JTAC and the police are now doing everything in hindsight. They are looking at every single intelligence report they received since 2001 to see if there was anything which indicated that July 7 was the day of the attack. The phrase they used to me is that so far they have found "absolutely nothing".
I don't think we can accuse the police or the intelligence services of being comeplacent. We know, thanks to Sir John Stevens - the former Metropolitan Police Commissioner - that the police have stopped eight terrorist attacks on this country since 2001. That figure has been disputed by the present Met commissioner, but certainly half a dozen terrorist attacks have been foiled.
By anyone's reckoning, that's an amazing achievement. The fact they failed on this occasion is devastating, but I don't believe they let their guard slip.
So, what can be done to prevent future terrorists slipping beneath the radar?
Other than hugely increasingly the number of people engaged in surveillance - which is what they are trying to do - it's difficult to know. It takes something like eight months to train someone to be a surveillance watcher, and it takes months and months to vet them beforehand. The only other option is to pour a lot of money in and get more people out on the streets.
The Conservatives are already calling for an inquiry. Will heads roll?
The opposition are reducing their demands a lot, and to all intents and purposes an inquiry is already being held. I don't think anyone is looking for heads to roll unless there is evidence that someone was professionally incompetent and totally failed to do his or her job properly. In that case, as in any organisation, that person should get the chop.
But the fact is we probably wouldn't get to hear about it. If they do hold a formal inquiry, I suspect it will be very much an internal investigation. The Home Secretary would have to make a statement in the Commons and that would probably lead to calls from the opposition for resignations, but I don't think that would really help.
20h07 - 2-Aug-2005
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